How are we supposed to be confident in COVID-19 statistics when the tests are unreliable?

HEALNC
04.12.20 09:52 AM Comment(s)

This is an open letter stating concerns about the testing used to diagnose COVID-19. It is our hope that you will download this letter and send it to everyone you deem necessary (local officials, public health committees, county commissioners, school boards, local newspapers, medical staff, etc.) Also please consider sharing this information on your social media. THIS LETTER HAS BEEN SENT TO ALL 170 NORTH CAROLINA SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES.

To Whom It May Concern,


I am reaching out to you today to voice my concern over the problematic testing being used to diagnose individuals with COVID-19. Panic has gripped our nation and people watch the number of cases and deaths with great alarm. Based on these numbers, the American government is making unprecedented decisions concerning our freedoms, our national economy, and our way of life. It is the public assumption that the tests must be ironclad. However, a cursory amount of research has raised many red flags about the test’s reliability and purity.


The COVID-19 test has a history of producing false positive results. There are many news stories about people who received a COVID-19 diagnosis based on a positive test result. Later, these individuals were informed the results were incorrect, and follow up tests were negative. 

  • According to one article, in March an American was held in Egypt after testing positive. Four days later, he tested negative along with at least four other people who had previously received a positive result. 

  • Another article titled “False Positive COVID-19 Test Alarms DI Community,” a young person tested positive and then later it was revealed that the test was faulty. 

  • In another news story, an 8-year-old boy tested positive for COVID-19. Later, the same specimen was retested and received a negative result. 

  • In late February, an American woman received a false positive that was followed by two negatives.


This predilection toward false positive test results is highly concerning as it inflates the case numbers. These false positives are then counted toward the total number of cases and that information is used to prolong quarantine and the shutdown of our country as well as unnecessary isolation and medical intervention for the falsely diagnosed.


In addition to false positives, the COVID-19 test commonly returns false negatives.

  • According to the CDC “the test can’t detect some strains of the virus…RNA viruses like the COVID-19 pathogen have a lot of genetic variability.” The genetic variability of COVID-19 undermines the ability for a test to be reliable. 

  • Louisville’s chief health strategist, Dr. Sarah Moyer, stated that the rate of false negatives could be as high as 40%.

  • Medical News Today investigated the accuracy of COVID-19 testing. “COVID-19 tests are new, and assessing their accuracy is challenging. PCR tests may produce false negatives, failing to identify evidence of SARS-CoV-2. Sometimes false negatives result from human error or problems with the procedure. Giving the test too early or late, for example, can lead to a false negative. The accuracy of similar tests for influenza is generally 50–70%."


In addition to the possibility of false positives and false negatives, several news stories have covered incidences of batches of new tests being delivered already contaminated with COVID-19. 

  • The Telegraph reported in the UK that “laboratories across the country were on Monday warned to expect a delay after traces of the virus were detected in parts due for delivery in the coming days.” Other articles state that “it was not clear in the email how the tests became contaminated.”

  • The US has dealt with similar issues. In fact, the lab manufacturing the testing kits was possibly contaminated. Fox News reported,  "The Trump administration has reportedly ordered an investigation into a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lab in Atlanta that was in charge of assembling coronavirus test kits after a scientist with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) raised concerns that the lab itself may be ‘contaminated,’ possibly leading to faulty test kits, according to reports.”


Contamination of labs and testing kits is an enormous issue! How are we to trust the numbers being reported of COVID-19 cases and deaths if both the labs manufacturing the tests and the tests themselves have been found to be contaminated? It is also disconcerting that no answers have been found as to how the tests became contaminated during manufacturing. There’s also concern that using a contaminated test could actually infect a person.


With a large number of reports on false positives, false negatives, and contamination of tests and manufacturing sites, I am very concerned that we are not receiving accurate statistics regarding the number of actual cases of COVID-19. Our economy and way of life are at risk due to government response based on these test results. It has also been revealed that the model used to predict the scale of this pandemic was exaggerated. The result of using a false model has played out in New York where the predictions of how many cases they would see were found to be 400% too high! We are operating on faulty information from all fronts.


Please help me understand how Americans are supposed to trust the COVID-19 numbers when they are based on such untrustworthy information.

HEALNC